While Asian Military Spending Rises, Europe’s Declines

Asia's budget for military spending has overtaken Europe - for the first time in modern history. That’s according to an influential annual report from the London based think-tank - The International Institute for Strategic Studies. It says a fall in European military expenditure, coupled with a rise in Asian spending saw the two converge in 2012. The report also says the conflict in Syria is likely to continue for the next 12 months, with North Korea another potential flash-point.

A brigade of Chinese troops exercising in Nanjing. One of the key findings of the new report from the International Institute for Strategic Studies is that military spending in Asia is continuing to rise and steeply in some places. In Asia as a whole spending rose 4.9%-4% last year. Just last week China announced a 10.7% rise in its military expenditure. But as China puts more money into military budgets, Europe spends less. John Chipman, Director General of the IISS:

“2012 saw nominal Asian defense spending overtake that of NATO European states for the first time. This is not simply a result of Asia spending more. It's as much a result of states in Europe spending less. In 2012 European NATO members defense spending was in real terms around 11% lower than in 2006.”

U.S. Army Trainers in Afghanistan - many of them will be returning to bases at home over the next year. But the U.S. continues to spend more on its military than the next 14 nations put together, spending, in fact, more than 45% of total global military expenditure. So is that military heading eastward to combat arising China? Strategically, both Pr. Barack Obama and U.S. military planners have often spoken of a pivot to the east. But the IISS says this is as yet more symbolic than real.

“Although much has been said about ‘rebalancing’ to the Pacific, in military terms, there's less there than first appeared. It will of course be important in the longer term, but the rebalance should mainly be seen as a signal that the U.S. who will remain engaged in Asia-Pacific security reflecting not just U.S. economic ties to the region, but also the emergence of China as original competitor in both economic and military terms.”

The continued unrest in the Middle East may be one of the reasons behind the slowness of the American pivot to East Asia. The Institute's experts say the conflict in Syria, for example, has kept America focused on the region. The U.N. says 70,000 people have died in Syria over the past two years. And the Institute says it expects the violence to continue for at least another year, as neither the government nor the rebels are sufficiently dominant to subdue the other. Tony George is a Senior Consulting Fellow at the Institute.

“The longer this conflict goes on – and I think it has got more years to run, – the more Syria will be a magnet for region-wide jihadists, international jihadists and jihadists from Britain and Europe. Therefore we have a comparable situation in Afghanistan before and during the Taliban, where basically an empty uncontrolled space is taken over by radical Islamists, who use it as a base from which to strike out into the Middle East and beyond.”

Meanwhile, British and French military support for the rebels in Syria look set to take tangible form. The two countries, along with Germany, are putting pressure on the E.U. to lift its arms embargo – position made clear by the French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius today on French radio:

“The position we are taking, which is moreover also that of the British, is to ask Europe to lift the arms embargo so that the rebels are able to defend themselves.”

That's a position likely to draw heavy criticism from the Russian government. But the brigadier Ben Barry of the IISS says Russia's stance towards the government of Bashar al Assad could cause problems in Moscow if he falls. Not, he says, that it's clear what will happen in Syria. One possibility is a fairly orderly transfer of power, but brigadier Barry says that's unlikely.

“A much more likely scenario is something that resembles Lebanon at the height of its civil war. Now, to what extent other regional parts, such as the Gulf States, such as Turkey, are able to shape events in a positive way? It's very unclear to see.”

Such a lack of clarity is one of the reasons why global military expenditure looks set to climb. Uncertainty and international rivalries continue to breed a perceived need for armed security and in an increasingly multipolar world, set frequently with fresh crisis, there's little chance that trend will reverse soon.

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